IMPLIED ODDS | AN EXTENSION OF POT ODDS

Before you read this article, you should have a firm understanding on the use of pot odds, as the ideas in this article are going to build on the mathematics of pot odds. Implied odds isn't necessarily a difficult concept to get your head around, but you will be feeling a little lost and confused if you haven't learnt about pot odds yet. So if you don't know what they are, familiarise yourself a little.

Okay then, lets get started with the situation from the pot odds article where we have a flush draw on the flop:

Our Hand: A 4
The Flop: Q T 6

Lets again assume that our opponent has bet $5 into a $10 pot, creating a $15 pot in total. This means we have to call $5 to win $15, giving us 3:1 odds. Unfortunately, our odds of making our flush are just over 4:1, which means it isn't going to be profitable to make the call in the long run. So according to the pot odds, we should be folding here.

But wait!

Although we have worked out the mathematics of the situation correctly, we are neglecting to utilize another important piece of information. We have been playing against this opponent for a while, and we know that they will hold onto any half decent hand until the death. Furthermore, our opponent has a pretty sizeable stack, and so if we manage to make our flush, we set ourselves up to extract a lot more money from them in future betting rounds.

Therefore although we do not have perfect pot odds to make the call here, we have the correct implied odds to make the call, as they suggest we will be making more money in the long run.

So what exactly are implied odds?

Implied odds are essentially the odds on whether we will make more money on future betting rounds. In the example above, there was a good chance that we will make a lot of money from our amateur opponent who would be happy to go to a showdown with us if we hit our flush, so in that instance we had good implied odds.

Despite the fact that pot odds are mathematically sound and will definitely help you make better decisions when you are on a draw, the do not factor in the amount of money you could win on further betting rounds. So if there is $15 in the pot when you are on your draw on the flop, pot odds are only working with the $15 in the pot right now, and not working out whether your call will be profitable given the chance that you will win even more money on the turn and river.

This is why we use implied odds to help inform our decision on whether a call is the most profitable decision or not.

How do you go about using implied odds?

You should think about using implied odds when you realise that the pot odds are slightly out of your favour. If the pot odds are in your favour on the other hand, you should just make the call and forget about the implied odds because you do not need to work them out. However, if according to pot odds a call would be unprofitable, you need to consider the implied odds before making your decision to call or fold.

The two main things to consider when trying to work out how good your implied odds are:

• Is my opponent likely to put more money into the pot after I complete my draw?
• Is my hand disguised?

If your opponent is likely to put more money into the pot after you complete your draw, chances are you have the implied odds to carry on with the hand as long as your pot odds aren't too bad. Similarly, if your hand is disguised, your opponent is less likely to slow down for the fear that you have a good hand, and so will continue to call and/or bet with a decent hand.

For example, sets and straights are disguised hands, as they are harder to spot than flushes and full houses. Flushes especially are not too great for implied odds, as everyone gets a little wary when the third card of the same suit appears on the board. So if you are unsure about whether you have good implied odds, remember that usually straights = good and flushes = not so good.

Sets are a great example of implied odds, as they are a deceptively strong hand, and many players forget to consider them on innocent flops. This is why it is usually a good idea to try and at least see a flop with a pocket pair in an attempt to make three of a kind, as nobody is going to suspect it, and you stand to make a decent amount of money from the guy (or girl) that catches top pair or two pair.

Summary

Implied odds are not difficult, nor do they require you to work out any mathematics. They simply require you to think about how likely it is to make money on future betting rounds, and help you decide whether or not a call is going to be profitable on a draw even if the pot odds are not in your favour. If you do not have perfect pot odds but have great implied odds, it's likely to be a profitable play to go ahead and call.

One thing to be careful about is to not get carried away with implied odds, and use them as an excuse to call on every draw under the sun. If the pot odds are very bad, its unlikely that the implied odds will make a call worth while in the long run. So if your pot odds are marginal, it's a good idea to consider the implied odds of the situation. Otherwise, if you are not strict with yourself when holding a draw, you are going to be losing money by making calls in the hopes of getting lucky.

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